SurveyUSA (5/5-7, likely and actual voters, 4/13-15 in parens):
Kurt Schrader (D): 37 (23)
Steve Marks (D): 14 (20)
Other/Undecided: 49 (57)
(MoE: ±4%)
And on the GOP side:
Mike Erickson (R): 49 (44)
Kevin Mannix (R): 41 (40)
Other/Undecided: 10 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Primary: 5/20.
Schrader has raised enough money to make a sizable ad buy if he made a leap like this in only 20 days.
I misread this as OH-05 momentarily.
Now if only we had someone running there other than a joke…
On the Dem side, Marks is probably more progressive (I don’t know of any substantial policy differences, but Schrader is considered one of the more moderate Dems in the state senate). But Schrader is probably a better choice from an electability angle, as a) unlike Marks, he has held elective office and b) he currently represents about 20% of the district as state senator (and as a plus his base is some of the most conservative parts of the district where we’ll need to hold down GOP margins in the general, i.e. rural/exurban Clackamas County, like Canby).
On the GOP side, I’m surprised to see Erickson not just leading but gaining support. Erickson is apparently the more moderate of the choices (again, I’m not sure what he and Mannix disagree on, but if you look at the SUSA crosstabs, Erickson is the choice of self-described moderates and Mannix the choice of self-described conservatives)… but Erickson’s 2006 campaign was considered to be amateur hour (replete with finance disclosure problems), plus the state GOP is pretty much controlled by the whackjobs, so I wouldn’t expect him to cut through the clutter (although Saxton’s victory over Mannix in the gubernatorial primary in 2006 may also point to a moderate resurgence).
I think it may simply add up to Mannix fatigue kicking in, finally (after four failed attempts at statewide office and the constant drip-drip-drip of news about his relationship with Loren Parks).